U.S. Beef Trade Adjusted as China Pulls Back
LUBBOCK, TX – U.S. beef exports in May totaled 229 million pounds, down 11% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook. The decline is largely due to reduced shipments to China, which imported only 4 million pounds—the lowest volume since 2020. That drop is tied to the expiration of Phase 1 trade deal export registrations for several U.S. beef plants in March. As a result, year-to-date exports to China through May are down 33%.
Despite this, exports to major Asian markets remained strong. May shipments to South Korea surged 39% from last year, while Japan saw a 3% increase. Exports to Hong Kong also climbed 28%. Total exports through May reached nearly 1.18 billion pounds, about 6% below the same period in 2024.
The USDA raised its second-quarter beef export forecast by 10 million pounds to 700 million and bumped up the third quarter to 660 million. Full-year 2025 exports are now projected at 2.728 billion pounds, still 9% below last year. However, the 2026 export forecast is raised to 2.565 billion pounds—roughly 10% of total expected U.S. production.
On the import side, May beef imports totaled 550 million pounds, up more than 60% year over year. Brazil led the surge, shipping 175 million pounds—over five times the amount from May 2024. Australia and countries like Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay also saw sharp increases.
Demand for imported beef trimmings remains high due to reduced domestic cow slaughter. USDA raised the second-quarter import forecast to 1.475 billion pounds and increased both Q3 and Q4 estimates slightly. The new 2025 import forecast is 5.377 billion pounds. The 2026 outlook is also up, now at 5.350 billion.