LUBBOCK, TX – Basis levels for U.S. wheat were mixed this week, with many elevators full through September but space remaining for fall deliveries. Corn shipments are climbing, but weaker soybean demand could help support wheat exports this fall. Gulf inquiries remain strong from both traditional and opportunistic buyers, while liquidity concerns persist in the Pacific Northwest. Industry analysts note farmer selling has been slow at current prices, though upcoming harvest and storage needs may spur more sales.
Hard red winter wheat yields and quality are exceeding expectations, with current estimates at 757 million bushels (20.6 MMT) and average protein at 12.1%. USDA’s updated production estimate is due August 12. For the week ending July 31, net wheat sales totaled 737,800 MT, putting 2025/26 commitments at 10.2 MMT—20% ahead of last year and 44% of USDA’s 23.1 MMT projection.
Global market factors include harvest delays and potential quality issues in Europe, a firm Russian price near $239/MT, and improved Australian production prospects. The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2,051, while the U.S. dollar index eased to 98.3 on expectations of possible Federal Reserve rate cuts.