USDA Sees Livestock Output Firming Despite Price Pressures

WASHINGTON, DC – U.S. livestock production is expected to remain resilient in 2026, with stronger weights, productivity gains, and steady demand offsetting tighter animal supplies across several sectors. USDA’s January Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook shows modest upward revisions to beef and dairy production forecasts, while pork and poultry output continue to expand.

Beef production for 2026 is now forecast at 25.7 billion pounds, slightly higher than last month, as heavier carcass weights more than offset fewer fed cattle marketings. Cattle price projections were also raised on recent strength, though beef imports are expected to increase amid ample global supplies and firm U.S. demand. Beef exports were trimmed due to rising competition in Asia.

Dairy production is projected to rise to 234.3 billion pounds in 2026, driven by higher milk per cow. Milk-fat exports are expected to reach record highs, while protein markets remain strong. However, the 2026 all-milk price forecast was lowered to $18.25 per hundredweight.

Pork production is projected to increase by 2.3 percent in 2026, with hog prices averaging near $67 per hundredweight. Poultry output was revised higher, while egg production and prices were adjusted lower on smaller layer inventories.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher productivity is supporting output, but softer prices will challenge margins across livestock sectors in 2026.