LUBBOCK, TX – A new study from North Dakota State University, partly funded by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service, examines how changes in the Black Sea region affect global wheat trade flows and logistical costs. The report highlights cost advantages tied to proximity—such as U.S. exports to Mexico, Australia to Asia, and Russia to the Middle East—suggesting port logistics remain critical to export competitiveness.
One scenario shows that expanded Russian port capacity could reduce U.S. wheat exports by up to 875,000 metric tons. However, logistical constraints continue to limit countries like Ukraine and Argentina from gaining Chinese market share, even if phytosanitary restrictions are lifted. An easing of Russia’s wheat export quotas would shift shipment timing and give Russia a larger global share at the expense of U.S. exports.
Meanwhile, domestic wheat logistics are also under pressure. Norfolk Southern Railway embargoed inbound wheat shipments to Ardent Mills’ flour mill in Chattanooga, Tennessee, effective July 25, citing rail congestion. The mill, Tennessee’s largest, also receives wheat by barge—but barge traffic has slowed due to major delays at the Kentucky Lock, caused by nearby repair closures at Barkley Lock.