NASHVILLE, TN – The World Bank reports fertilizer prices rose sharply in the second quarter of 2025, with its fertilizer index up 15 percent since January. Phosphates led the increase, with triple superphosphate up 43 percent and diammonium phosphate up 23 percent. Rising demand, trade restrictions, and supply shortfalls—particularly in urea—have tightened markets. Prices are projected to climb about 7 percent for the year before stabilizing in 2026, though they will remain well above pre-2019 averages.
The global outlook is being shaped by policy and trade shifts. China has cut nitrogen exports by more than 90 percent year-over-year, prioritizing domestic supply, while Belarus and Russia face EU tariffs and sanctions on fertilizer shipments. These measures are redirecting trade flows toward Brazil and India, while U.S. growers face higher costs.
Fertilizer affordability has declined as crop prices soften, making inputs more expensive relative to farm revenues. The World Bank expects urea prices to rise another 15 percent this year before easing in 2026, while DAP and potash will see smaller increases. Structural challenges remain, with fertilizer production under pressure to adopt lower-emission alternatives in the years ahead.