NASHVILLE, TN – Rising energy and fertilizer costs tied to the Iran conflict are rapidly shifting 2026 corn and soybean margins, creating a wide range of financial outcomes for producers.
Analysis from Marc Rosenbohm with Terrain shows input prices have surged since late February, with diesel up more than $1 per gallon, urea rising roughly 35 percent, and anhydrous ammonia increasing about 25 percent. Some fertilizer-related inputs have climbed as much as 60 percent, reflecting disruptions to global energy and nutrient supplies tied to the conflict.
Grain markets have also reacted. Corn and soybean futures initially gained about 6 percent following the escalation, then gave back a portion of those gains by mid-March, adding another layer of uncertainty to margin projections.
The combination of volatile input costs and fluctuating grain prices is creating sharply different outcomes across operations. Producers who secured inputs earlier are seeing improved margins from higher grain prices, while those purchasing inputs now face tighter economics unless they manage price risk.
If energy and fertilizer markets stabilize, grain prices could retreat, leaving higher-cost producers exposed to margin pressure later in the season.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Recalculate 2026 margins using current input costs.