LUBBOCK, TX – Sorghum markets are facing growing oversupply risks as export demand — particularly from China — remains uncertain, according to Terrain economist Bree Baatz.
U.S. farmers intend to plant 6.12 million acres of sorghum in 2026, down 8% from last year, but shifting conditions could still push acreage higher. Dry weather in the Plains and lower fertilizer requirements compared to corn may encourage additional sorghum planting, increasing supply beyond current projections.
Demand remains the key concern. China accounts for more than half of U.S. sorghum exports, and without a pickup in second-quarter buying, ending stocks are expected to rise. Analysts estimate stocks could increase by another 25 million bushels, adding pressure to prices and widening basis levels.
Global competition is also intensifying. Brazil, Argentina, and Australia are all expanding sorghum production, with Brazil in particular positioned to grow exports after gaining access to Chinese markets.
Domestic demand is increasing, with more sorghum moving into ethanol production, but that growth is largely offsetting weaker exports rather than creating new demand.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Sorghum prices hinge heavily on China’s export demand.