NASHVILLE, TN – Global fertilizer disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict are creating uneven risks for farmers, with Brazil facing more immediate pressure while U.S. producers have more flexibility, according to economists at the University of Illinois and Purdue University.
Fertilizer prices remain elevated as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — a key global shipping route — continue to limit supply. That is increasing input costs and tightening the availability of inputs during critical decision windows for global crop production.
For U.S. farmers, much of the 2026 fertilizer was already purchased or applied ahead of the recent disruptions, reducing near-term exposure. Domestic production of nitrogen and phosphate, along with reliable imports of potash from Canada, further cushions supply risks.
In contrast, Brazil relies heavily on imported fertilizer, with as much as 90% to nearly 100% of nutrients sourced globally. That dependence comes at a critical time, as Brazilian producers are actively making fertilizer purchase decisions for the upcoming soybean crop.
Rising fertilizer-to-grain price ratios are also reducing purchasing power, especially for phosphate, increasing the number of bushels needed to secure inputs and tightening margins.
Farm-Level Takeaway: U.S. farmers have time; Brazil faces immediate fertilizer pressure.
(Link to farmdoc article: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/the-iran-conflict-and-fertilizer-markets-why-brazil-faces-greater-near-term-risk-than-the-u-s.html)