LUBBOCK, TX – USDA’s phased reopening of Mexican cattle imports reflects a new balance between feeder-cattle supply needs and New World screwworm protection. Oklahoma State University trade economist Aleks Schaefer says the decision is scientifically sound because the pest is now confirmed inside the United States.
Before restrictions, Mexico supplied about 1.2 million feeder cattle annually. At the disruption’s peak, monthly imports fell more than 150,000 head below levels predicted by historical market relationships.
The reduced flow tightened feeder supplies and lifted prices. The analysis estimates border closures pushed feeder cattle values nearly $100 per hundredweight above expected levels by July 2025, increasing costs for feedlots and downstream beef markets.
The policy question has now changed. Officials must determine whether continued restrictions meaningfully slow spread, prevent reinfestation, or provide enough additional response time to justify ongoing market losses.
The phased reopening allows trade to resume while biosecurity controls remain in place. Producers will watch inspection requirements, regional disease status, import volumes, and whether renewed Mexican supplies ease feeder prices without increasing animal-health risk.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Reopening trade could ease feeder-cattle costs while preserving targeted safeguards against additional screwworm exposure.