WASHINGTON, DC – China remains a major almond market, but California growers are capturing less of it as Australia expands its tariff and shipping advantage. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service says U.S. sales have fallen sharply even though imports supply more than 80 percent of Chinese demand.
U.S. shelled almond shipments to China dropped from 24,893 metric tons in 2023 to 3,017 metric tons in 2025. In-shell shipments fell from 44,825 metric tons to 6,223 metric tons.
Australia replaced the United States as China’s leading supplier, supported by zero-tariff access, shorter shipping distances, and counter-seasonal production. U.S. shipments to China and Hong Kong were also down 35 percent during the first 11 months of the 2025–26 marketing year.
Opportunity remains in shelled almonds, bakery ingredients, premium snacks, protein bars, and plant-based beverages. California products retain a reputation for quality, consistency, traceability, and dependable supply.
Recovering market share will require more than promotion. Tariff relief, competitive freight costs, and stronger positioning in premium and ready-to-use products will determine whether U.S. growers benefit from China’s future demand.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Chinese demand offers potential, but tariffs and Australian competition continue limiting California almond sales.