COLUMBIA, MO – U.S. agriculture remains divided between pressured crop margins and historically strong cattle returns, according to the September baseline update from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.
FAPRI projects modestly higher crop prices in 2026/27, but says values remain well below recent peaks while production costs stay elevated. Corn is projected at $4.57 per bushel, soybeans at $11.66, and wheat at $6.25.
Cotton prices are also expected to recover, while rice, sorghum, and barley prices strengthen from 2025/26 lows. Even with those gains, crop profitability remains constrained by input expenses and softer commodity values.
Livestock conditions remain stronger. Cow-calf returns are projected at historic highs in 2026, with five-area direct steer prices reaching about $247 per hundredweight in 2027 before declining as cattle supplies gradually rebuild.
Dairy moves differently, with stronger milk production pressuring prices while food inflation remains elevated but is expected to ease in 2027.
Farm-Level Takeaway: FAPRI sees modest crop-price recovery, but livestock producers remain in a stronger financial position.