WASHINGTON, DC – Beef prices are separating sharply from the rest of the grocery basket in 2026. USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts beef and veal prices will rise 9.8% this year, compared with a 2.5% increase for food purchased at grocery stores.
July beef and veal prices were already 9.4% above a year earlier. By comparison, pork prices were up just 0.5%, while poultry and dairy prices were slightly lower than last July.
ERS expects pork prices to rise only 0.8% for the full year and poultry prices about 0.5%. Dairy prices are forecast to remain essentially unchanged, while egg prices are projected to fall sharply from 2025 levels.
For cattle producers, the widening retail price gap reflects historically tight beef supplies and strong cattle values, while cheaper competing proteins could encourage some consumers to substitute pork or poultry.
USDA currently projects another 5.1% increase in beef prices for 2027, although the forecast range remains unusually wide.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Beef remains the major food-price outlier, supporting cattle values while increasing pressure on consumers to consider cheaper proteins.