NASHVILLE, TN – U.S. farmers hoping for higher crop prices may not get much help from Brazil unless weather disrupts production. University of Illinois economists Joe Janzen and Joana Colussi say Brazil’s long-term corn and soybean growth trend remains intact despite tighter margins.
Brazil’s soybean production has climbed from roughly 75 million metric tons in 2011 to 180 million in 2026. Corn production increased from about 57 million metric tons to 138 million over the same period.
The analysis says area expansion has driven much of that growth. Soybean area has more than doubled since 2011, while corn area has increased by roughly three-fourths.
Brazil still faces real risks heading into 2027. High fertilizer costs, tight credit, benchmark interest rates near 15 percent, and possible El Niño-related weather problems could pressure yields and margins.
The report says weather is more likely than farmer pullback to interrupt Brazil’s production trend. Continued growth would add more global supply and limit price recovery for U.S. producers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: U.S. crop producers should watch Brazil’s weather and fertilizer costs because continued growth could cap price rallies.