BRASILIA, BRAZIL – Brazil is headed toward another record soybean crop, increasing competitive pressure on U.S. growers even as Brazilian producers face sharply higher production costs.
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts 2026/27 soybean production at 184 million metric tons, up nearly 2% from the current estimate of 180.5 million. Planted area is projected at 49.7 million hectares, up 1.4%.
Early rainfall has supported planting across major production regions, although severe weather remains a risk. Brazil is also expected to export a record 117.5 million metric tons of soybeans, with China remaining its largest market.
The expansion is coming at a higher cost. Soybean production expenses are projected to rise 6.6% from the previous season, driven mainly by fertilizer, crop-protection chemicals, financing and other input costs.
Higher costs could slow future acreage expansion even as Brazil continues increasing soybean production, processing and exports. That combination keeps Brazil a major competitor while adding financial pressure to its own producers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Brazil’s record soybean outlook adds export competition, but rising input costs are increasing financial pressure on Brazilian growers.