LUBBOCK, TX – China’s new 30-for-30 tariff framework highlights how sharply some U.S. agricultural exports have weakened since 2024, especially cotton and sorghum. Retired USDA economist Fred Gale says potential tariff relief alone may not quickly restore lost demand.
Gale calculates non-soybean agricultural products on China’s list totaled $11.6 billion in U.S. exports during 2024, compared with $3.94 billion from January through July 2026. Soybeans are being handled separately under an earlier purchase commitment.
Cotton exports to China fell from $1.47 billion in 2024 to $187.7 million through July 2026. Sorghum dropped from $1.23 billion to $884.8 million, while beef fell from $1.19 billion to $43.4 million.
Corn exports declined from $334 million to just $8.1 million. Gale also notes China’s tariff-rate quota system continues to constrain corn and wheat imports even if tariffs are reduced.
The framework could improve market access, but rebuilding purchases will depend on Chinese demand, quota administration and how quickly tariff changes take effect.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Cotton, sorghum and other U.S. commodities need more than tariff relief to rebuild Chinese demand toward earlier trade levels.