COLUMBIA, MO – U.S. cotton prices are projected to recover sharply in 2026/27, but elevated production costs are expected to keep producer margins tight, according to FAPRI’s September baseline update.
The upland cotton farm price is forecast at 76.4 cents per pound, up from 62.5 cents in 2025/26. Planted acreage increases from 9.14 million to 10.32 million acres.
Production is projected at 13.2 million bales this season before rebounding above 16 million bales in 2027/28. Exports are expected to rise from 11.9 million bales to about 14.6 million as production recovers.
Even with stronger prices, variable production expenses continue increasing. FAPRI projects market net returns near $151 per acre in 2026/27, improving from the previous year but still reflecting a difficult cost environment.
Over the longer outlook, cotton prices remain near 76 cents per pound while production holds around 16 million bales, suggesting limited room for a major profitability surge.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher cotton prices improve revenue prospects, but input costs continue limiting the margin recovery for growers.