NASHVILLE, TN – U.S. economic growth is continuing, but leading indicators point to slower momentum ahead, creating another caution signal for farm households and rural businesses already dealing with tight margins and high borrowing costs. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell 0.1% in August.
The index declined to 99.5, while its six-month growth rate slipped slightly negative. Weak consumer expectations, fewer building permits, and higher jobless claims offset stronger financial components. The Conference Board says no recession signal was triggered.
For agriculture, softer consumer confidence could pressure higher-value food purchases and discretionary spending. Slower construction activity may also affect rural contractors, lumber demand, farm building projects, and other small-town businesses.
Current economic conditions remain positive. The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.1% in August, with employment, income, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales all contributing gains.
The Conference Board forecasts real U.S. economic growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, pointing to continued expansion but a slower environment for capital investment and rural spending.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Slower national growth could reinforce caution on farm investment, consumer demand, and rural business activity even without a recession signal.