LUBBOCK, TX – Ethanol production pulled back in mid-March, signaling softer near-term demand while rising inventories add pressure on margins and corn use expectations.
According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, production dropped 2.9% to 1.09 million barrels per day — about 45.9 million gallons daily — a six-week low. The four-week average eased to 17.02 billion gallons annually. At the same time, ethanol stocks rose 3.2% to 26.4 million barrels, the highest since April 2025, while gasoline demand declined 5.6%, weighing on blending needs.
Operationally, weaker refiner inputs and a 7.4% drop in exports point to softer movement across domestic and global markets.
In the longer term, Texas A&M AgriLife economist Dr. Mark Welch notes that ethanol demand remains tied to policy and fuel trends. Corn used for fuel has grown to about 5.6 billion bushels — roughly one-third of total production — but declining gasoline use could put pressure on demand. Expanded year-round E15 could offset that, potentially adding up to 2 billion bushels of corn demand by 2030 if adoption accelerates.
Looking ahead, ethanol markets hinge on demand recovery and policy clarity around E15.
Farm-Level Takeaway: E15 policy could shape future corn demand outlook.