WEST LAFAYETTE, IN – Farmer confidence weakened sharply at the start of 2026 as economic pressure intensified across U.S. agriculture, according to the January Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index fell 23 points from December to 113, marking one of the steepest month-to-month declines in recent years.
Analysis from Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture shows that both current conditions and future expectations deteriorated. Nearly half of the surveyed producers said their farms were worse off than a year ago, while 30 percent expect weaker financial performance in the year ahead. Investment intentions also softened, with the Farm Capital Investment Index dropping to its lowest level since October 2024, and only 4 percent planning to increase machinery purchases.
Export concerns played a central role. Sixteen percent of respondents expect U.S. agricultural exports to decline over the next five years, with soybean competitiveness versus Brazil cited as a major risk. Eighty percent of corn and soybean producers expressed concern about Brazil’s export advantage.
Producers also signaled tighter cash flow. Twenty-one percent expect larger operating loans in 2026, and a growing share attributes that increase to unpaid debt carried forward from prior years.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rising debt, export uncertainty, and weaker margins are weighing heavily on producer confidence entering 2026.