LUBBOCK, TX – U.S. farmers face renewed fertilizer cost risk as trade restrictions and global conflict tighten nitrogen and phosphate supplies. StoneX fertilizer analyst Josh Linville says stronger grain prices are helping, but higher fertilizer and diesel costs continue to pressure margins.
Russia supplied about 40% of U.S. urea imports and 57% of urea ammonium nitrate imports in fertilizer year 2026, according to StoneX. New U.S. sanctions authority targeting Russia adds uncertainty around future trade flows.
President Donald Trump said the United States is pursuing a potash deal with Belarus. Linville expects limited relief because potash remains comparatively affordable, while Belarus still faces major export and transit constraints.
Nitrogen and phosphate markets face broader pressure from Middle East disruptions, high European natural gas costs, restricted Chinese phosphate exports, and reduced sulfur availability. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also remains sharply disrupted.
StoneX says stronger corn prices have increased expected fall fertilizer demand, adding support to nutrient prices. Producers now face a tighter margin squeeze rather than the deeper losses feared earlier this year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher crop prices are helping cash flow, but fertilizer and fuel costs continue to limit producer margins.