WASHINGTON, DC – Hog producers remain profitable in much of 2026, but weaker pork demand, lower prices and rising feed costs are increasing pressure heading into 2027, according to American Farm Bureau Federation economist Bernt Nelson.
USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report put the U.S. hog inventory at 74.3 million head, down 2% from a year earlier. The breeding herd fell to 5.87 million head, its smallest level since 2013, while heavier market weights continue to support pork production.
Export demand is becoming a larger concern. USDA lowered pork export forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 as competition from Canada, Brazil and Europe increases. July shipments to Mexico fell 2% from a year earlier, while exports to South Korea dropped nearly 30%.
Domestic demand has also softened. August live hog prices averaged $69.43 per hundredweight, down nearly 11% from last year, while the pork cutout fell more than 14%.
Feed costs could add pressure next year, with swine feed costs projected to rise nearly 10% in 2027 if current grain forecasts hold.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Hog margins remain positive, but weaker demand and higher feed costs could quickly erode profitability into 2027.
(Tags: Hogs, Pork, Feed Costs, Livestock Markets, Pork Exports)
Focus Keyphrase: Hog Producer Margins
Meta Description: Hog producers remain profitable, but weaker pork demand, lower prices and rising feed costs are increasing risk heading into 2027.