LUBBOCK, TX – USDA’s latest futures-based price model suggests corn, soybeans and wheat remain above levels that would trigger Price Loss Coverage payments for the 2026 crop, an important signal as producers approach the December 11 ARC and PLC election deadline.
The Economic Research Service model projects season-average prices of $5.06 per bushel for corn, $12.72 for soybeans and $6.59 for wheat. Those forecasts are all above the crops’ effective reference prices of $4.42, $10.71 and $6.35, respectively.
The model is also more optimistic than USDA’s current WASDE forecasts, which stand at $4.80 for corn, $12.00 for soybeans and $6.40 for wheat. Wheat is closest to its PLC trigger, leaving less room if prices weaken.
USDA also forecasts upland cotton at about 74 cents per pound, below the current 78-cent WASDE projection. Cotton’s program calculations use seed cotton rather than the upland cotton price shown in this model.
The forecasts are market-based estimates, not final program determinations. Futures prices, basis and marketing patterns can change before final season-average prices are established.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Current market forecasts point away from PLC payments for corn, soybeans and wheat, but wheat remains closest to its trigger.