WASHINGTON, DC – U.S. dairy producers are expected to make more milk than the USDA projected last month, but the higher supply is weighing on the price outlook.
The Economic Research Service raises 2026 milk production to 236.4 billion pounds. The increase reflects more dairy cows and stronger milk per cow.
The national dairy herd averaged 9.645 million head in April, up 190,000 from last year. April milk production reached 19.960 billion pounds, or about 665 million pounds per day.
USDA lowers the 2026 all-milk price forecast to $20.70 per hundredweight, down 55 cents from the previous estimate. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are also reduced.
Exports help, with higher expected shipments of cheese, butter, and dry whey products. Still, producers face a familiar margin question as milk supply expands.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Dairy farms should watch milk output, feed costs, and export demand as stronger production puts pressure on milk checks.