LUBBOCK, TX – Nitrogen fertilizer prices could rise into the spring application season before easing later in 2027, according to a new forecast from Kansas State University agricultural economist Gregg Ibendahl.
The model projects anhydrous ammonia near $950 per ton in September, rising to about $1,044 in March before falling to $876 by August. Urea is forecast near $661 in September, peaking around $705 in April before easing to $622.
Ibendahl says European natural gas futures are driving much of that pattern. Winter gas prices are expected to strengthen before declining later in 2027, with fertilizer markets responding after a roughly two-month lag.
Current nitrogen prices also remain above levels suggested by gas and corn fundamentals. The model estimates August anhydrous and urea prices were about 18% above fundamental values, while Strait of Hormuz disruptions added another layer of uncertainty.
The forecast carries wide uncertainty bands, making timing decisions difficult. Producers weighing prepaid fertilizer or spring purchases face the risk of higher seasonal prices before projected relief arrives later next summer.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Nitrogen prices may peak during spring application, increasing the value of careful fertilizer purchasing and risk-management decisions.