NASHVILLE, TN – Ocean freight costs for moving U.S. grain to Japan surged during the second quarter, threatening export competitiveness as harvest shipments approach. USDA’s Grain Transportation Report says Gulf rates averaged $69.27 per metric ton, equal to 149 percent of last year.
Pacific Northwest rates averaged $36.25 per metric ton, or 134 percent of a year earlier. The Gulf-to-Japan spread widened to $33.02, equal to 171 percent of last year, increasing the advantage for western ports.
Strong grain and iron ore movements supported vessel demand, while bunker fuel prices remained sharply above winter levels. Gulf-to-Europe rates moved the opposite direction, averaging $22.45 per metric ton, or 99 percent of last year.
By mid-July, Gulf-to-Japan rates remained near $69.50, while Pacific Northwest rates held around $36.50. China’s economy, vessel availability, and seasonal steel demand could pressure rates lower.
El Niño and congestion at major shipping chokepoints could instead push costs higher. Panama Canal restrictions or longer routes around Africa would add transit time, raise ton-mile demand, and weaken Gulf grain bids.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher ocean freight costs could reduce Gulf export competitiveness and pressure inland grain prices.