SAO PAULO, BRAZIL – Arabica coffee futures remain near $2.95 per pound despite expectations for record production in Brazil, as weather concerns and strong export demand continue supporting prices.
Brazil’s 2026 coffee harvest is estimated at 67.6 million processed bags, up 19.6% from the previous year. Arabica production is also expected to rise sharply, while September exports reached their highest shipping volume in 20 months.
Global supplies are also improving. Coffee production reached a record 183.6 million bags in 2025/26, creating the first market surplus in five years, while Hedgepoint Global Markets estimates an 8.9 million-bag surplus for the current crop year.
Weather remains the main counterweight. El Niño concerns continue to support futures even as rains return to major Brazilian growing regions and producers begin fertilizer applications for the 2027/28 crop.
Growers are also facing reduced fertilizer purchasing power, which could affect future investment and crop development despite currently strong coffee prices.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Record production is improving coffee supplies, but weather risk and input costs continue supporting prices near historically strong levels.