LUBBOCK, TX – Soybean futures recovered after USDA projected a record national yield, as traders weighed whether late-season weather and stronger demand could offset some of the bearish production pressure.
Frontier Futures broker Adam Knosalla told the Agribusiness Report that the market may not be fully comfortable with USDA’s yield estimate. He said August weather and September wetness could still reduce final soybean yields in some areas.
Knosalla said soybean demand currently appears stronger than corn demand, particularly when looking at export sales. He also pointed to the market’s positive close after the report as a supportive signal following the initial bearish reaction.
Domestic crush demand remains another source of support. Knosalla said expectations for continued biodiesel-related demand could keep soybean oil and meal usage strong, while crush totals may challenge USDA’s current projections.
Producers will be watching whether stronger export and crush demand can absorb the projected crop and whether later harvest data cause USDA to revise the record yield estimate.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Stronger export and crush demand could help support soybeans if final yields come in below USDA’s current record projection.