LUBBOCK, TX – Current crop budgets are pointing toward fewer U.S. corn acres and increased soybean plantings in 2027 as producers weigh commodity prices against elevated production costs.
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension grain marketing economist Mark Welch says current futures prices and crop budgets make soybeans relatively more attractive than corn. He cautions that does not necessarily mean strong profitability, describing soybean losses as potentially smaller than projected corn losses.
Welch says the question may be less about whether acreage shifts and more about how large that shift becomes. Long-range projections he follows suggest corn acreage could decline by roughly 2 million acres.
A more significant drop could materially change the corn supply outlook. Welch says corn acreage near 92 million acres, combined with current use assumptions, could reduce ending stocks to roughly 33 days of use.
That tighter supply could support corn near $5.25 per bushel, a level Welch says may be needed to cover projected 2027 production costs.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Current economics favor some movement from corn toward soybeans, making 2027 acreage decisions an important factor in next year’s corn price outlook.