LUBBOCK, TX – Cotton prices have rallied as hedge funds moved from a net short position to a net long position in ICE cotton futures. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension cotton economist John Robinson says that speculative shift coincided with a roughly 20-cent move higher in nearby futures.
Robinson says hedge funds had been net short for about two years. That position matched a relatively low and flat pattern in nearby ICE cotton settlements before the April 2026 turn.
The move likely started with buying to cover open short positions, then expanded into new long buying. That kind of speculative activity can push prices higher faster than crop fundamentals alone might justify.
The broader cotton outlook remains more neutral. Robinson says projected 2026/27 ending stocks are within 500,000 bales of the 2025/26 estimate.
Weather may now drive the next move, with early dryness and possible El Niño moisture shaping crop expectations and price risk.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Cotton growers may want pre-harvest pricing plans ready because speculative buying can quickly add volatility to weather-driven markets.