NASHVILLE, TN – Global fertilizer markets remain under pressure as the Strait of Hormuz closure nears the 10-week mark. Josh Linville with Stone X says the shutdown is still disrupting major exporters and keeping sellers firm even as many buyers hold back, hoping prices eventually ease.
Nitrogen markets remain quiet on the surface, but supply problems are still significant. Urea production in Europe is running at about 75 percent of normal, Chinese exports are not expected until August, and blocked shipments from Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are tightening global trade flows.
North America is in better shape than much of the world. Most domestic demand for ammonia and liquid nitrogen is met domestically, and Linville’s demand model suggests that urea imports already in the pipeline should cover normal spring needs if exports, diversions, or demand do not rise.
Phosphate remains the bigger concern. He said China is still out of the export market, Saudi shipments are slowed, and key inputs like ammonia and sulfur are also being squeezed by the Strait closure.
Potash supplies appear adequate, but freight costs are pushing prices higher. Linville adds that availability and affordability are no longer the same thing in this market.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Fertilizer supply remains available in North America, but global disruptions are keeping prices and risks elevated.