FAYETTEVILLE, AR – A strong El Niño is raising concern about Brazil’s 2026/27 safrinha corn crop, a major competitor to U.S. exports. That’s according to University of Arkansas agricultural economist Bruno Pinto.
About 80% of Brazil’s corn is planted after soybeans. In Mato Grosso, delayed soybean planting can push corn beyond the low-risk window that ends from early February to mid-March. NOAA says there is a 75% chance this El Niño will be the strongest since 1950 during October through December.
In 2015/16, nearly half of Mato Grosso’s safrinha area was planted late and yields ran 29% below trend. In 2020/21, about 55% was late and yields fell nearly 13% below trend.
Weaker El Niño years did not always hurt yields. In 2018/19 and 2023/24, planting stayed mostly timely and yields held at or above trend. The report says key markers are soybean planting by October 31, harvest by February 20 and April rainfall.
If soybean planting slips and safrinha corn is seeded late, Brazil’s exports could tighten and global prices could respond, changing the outlook for U.S. corn growers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Delays in Brazil’s soybean planting could raise the risk of a smaller safrinha corn crop and shift export competition for U.S. producers.