NASHVILLE, TN – U.S. sugar demand remains firm, but wider use of GLP-1 weight-loss medications and growing health concerns could weaken the market over time. CoBank food and beverage economist Billy Roberts says producers should focus less on current stability and more on how consumption patterns may shift.
USDA data through April shows sugar deliveries increased across wholesale grocers, beverage makers, bakeries, cereal producers, and confectionery companies. Those gains offset declines in foodservice, dairy processing, frozen foods, and government purchases.
The longer-term threat is broader food reduction, not only sugar avoidance. J.P. Morgan estimates GLP-1 use could cut annual U.S. food and beverage spending by $30 billion by 2030 and $55 billion by 2034.
Consumer intentions also remain unfavorable. Three-fourths of consumers reported trying to limit or avoid sugar in 2025, while many remain skeptical of artificial substitutes. That may favor natural sweeteners without guaranteeing overall growth.
Sugar growers, refiners, and food manufacturers will watch medication access, product reformulation, portion sizes, and stevia use. Demand remains resilient today, but future growth may depend on adapting to consumers who simply eat less.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Sugar demand remains stable, but health trends could gradually weaken long-term market growth.