WASHINGTON, DC – Tight cattle supplies are continuing to support strong prices in 2026, even as overall beef production is projected to decline, according to the USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.
Beef production is forecast at 25.79 billion pounds, slightly below earlier estimates, as slower slaughter rates are only partially offset by heavier carcass weights. Feedlot inventories remain near year-ago levels, but more cattle are being held on feed longer, pushing weights to record levels and helping maintain total output.
Cattle prices remain a key story for producers. Slaughter steer prices are projected to average $241.66 per hundredweight in 2026, up 8% from last year, while feeder cattle prices have surged significantly due to tight supplies and strong demand.
Export markets, however, are showing weakness. U.S. beef exports are forecast to be down 8% for the year, largely due to reduced access to China, though gains in markets like Taiwan and other regions are helping offset some losses. At the same time, beef imports are rising, particularly from Brazil, Australia, and Latin America.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies continue supporting strong prices despite export headwinds.