WASHINGTON, DC – Diesel prices are likely to remain elevated through harvest and into winter as tight global distillate supplies keep U.S. inventories below normal, according to the Energy Information Administration.
EIA expects fourth-quarter distillate inventories to run about 11% below the five-year average. U.S. distillate exports increased 20% through the first seven months of 2026, with much of the additional volume moving to Europe.
Domestic production has remained strong. U.S. distillate output averaged 5.1 million barrels per day from January through August, the highest since 2019, while refinery utilization approached maximum levels during September.
Even so, lower global refining activity has raised international prices and increased demand for U.S. exports. EIA says tight inventories have also supported stronger refining margins and higher retail diesel prices.
For farmers, sustained diesel costs increase expenses for harvest, fieldwork, trucking and other fuel-intensive operations. Freight costs can also rise when diesel remains expensive across highway and rail transportation.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight distillate inventories and strong export demand could keep diesel costs elevated for producers through harvest and into winter.