CHICAGO, IL – Traders expect USDA to reduce its U.S. corn production and ending-stock forecasts Friday, making corn the biggest potential market mover in the September supply-and-demand reports.
The average trade estimate puts 2026 corn production at 15.8 billion bushels, down from USDA’s August estimate of 16.013 billion. Yield is expected at 178.4 bushels per acre, compared with 180.7 previously.
That smaller crop would tighten the new-crop balance sheet. Traders expect 2026/27 corn ending stocks near 1.52 billion bushels, down from USDA’s previous 1.653 billion. Old-crop corn stocks are expected to remain nearly unchanged.
Soybean adjustments are expected to be smaller. Production is estimated at 4.498 billion bushels, with ending stocks near 292 million. Wheat ending stocks are expected around 720 million bushels, essentially unchanged from USDA’s August outlook.
USDA will release the reports Friday at 11 a.m. Central. A corn production or carryout number outside the trade range could generate the strongest market reaction.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Corn producers should watch yield, production, and new-crop ending stocks most closely when USDA releases Friday’s reports.