LUBBOCK, TX – The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is expected to shrink in fiscal year 2026, but the latest USDA outlook shows the sector remains far from returning to the decades-long export surplus that historically supported farm profitability. While export demand is stabilizing in some sectors, strong import growth and global competition continue to weigh on the trade balance.
USDA’s first 2026 Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade projects exports at $174 billion and imports at $203 billion, resulting in a $29 billion deficit. That marks an improvement from the $37 billion deficit forecast in December, but still reflects a structural shift from the nearly 60 years when U.S. agriculture consistently ran a trade surplus.
Operationally, soybean and oilseed exports remain under pressure as Brazil and Argentina continue to expand production and capture global market share. China’s demand for U.S. soybeans also remains below earlier peak levels, contributing to softer export prospects for oilseeds.
Regionally, grain exports are showing relative strength. USDA forecasts $42.4 billion in grain and feed exports for 2026, including a stronger corn demand of $18.5 billion. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast near $39.1 billion, with dairy exports increasing while beef export values were revised slightly lower.
Looking ahead, producers and markets will closely watch the scheduled 2026 review of the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement. Canada and Mexico together purchase more than $58 billion in U.S. agricultural goods annually, making the outcome of the agreement’s six-year review a key factor shaping export access and price stability.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Trade deficit narrowing, but export competition remains strong.