WASHINGTON, DC – USDA plans a new annual review showing how crop forecasts changed during the growing season and how those estimates compared with final numbers, part of a broader effort to rebuild producer confidence in agricultural statistics.
The Crop Season in Review report will compare estimates and forecasts issued throughout each season with final estimates and identify the data sources used. USDA will begin by preparing retrospective reports for the 2024 and 2025 crop seasons.
The department also plans to publish performance measures, validation results and lessons learned from major modernization pilots. The department will continue methodology and quality documentation for major statistical releases.
USDA says producer trust has weakened as survey response rates declined and questions grew about how it develops agricultural estimates. The modernization effort includes additional listening sessions and direct producer feedback.
For farmers and market participants, the annual review could provide a clearer record of where estimates changed and what information drove those revisions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Season-end forecast reviews could give producers greater visibility into how USDA estimates evolve and why final crop numbers differ.