WASHINGTON, DC – USDA released their July 2021 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Monday and provided an increase in potential crop prices for wheat, no change for cotton, and lower prices for corn and soybeans.
The outlook for U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. All wheat production is lowered 152 million bushels to 1,746 million. The all wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, down 4.9 bushels from last month. The production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year for these two classes due to the severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains. Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production, both on increased harvested acreage and a higher yield and imports are raised 20 million bushels to 145 million represneting the smallest U.S. wheat exports since the 2015/16 marketing year. In addition, projected ending stocks are reduced 105 million bushels to 665 million and are the lowest since 2013/14, and the season-average farm price is raised 10¢ per bushel to $6.60.
This month’s corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast 175 million bushels higher based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report and the national average corn yield is unchanged at 179.5 bushels per acre. Total U.S. corn use is forecast 75 million bushels higher with increases for feed and residual use and exports. Exports are raised 50 million bushels, with sharply lower exports expected for Brazil and with supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 75 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is lowered 10¢ to $5.60 per bushel.
Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. Harvested area, forecast at 86.7 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is unchanged from last month but up 4.4 million from last year while the yield forecast is unchanged at 50.8 bushels per acre. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.05 per bushel, down 20¢ as early-season sales at lower prices continue to weigh on the season-average forecast.
Cotton projections show higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. While production is 800,000 bales higher, consumption is unchanged, and exports and ending stocks are each projected 400,000 bales higher. The upland cotton farm price is unchanged, at 75¢ per pound. World production is projected about 500,000 bales higher this month as a larger U.S. crop more than offsets adecline for Pakistan. Consumption is slightly higher largely due to an increase for India but world trade is projected lower, with China’s imports 1 million lower and Brazil’s exports 1.1 million bales lower.
(SOURCE: All Ag News)