LUBBOCK, TX – Even a strong El Niño may not be enough to erase the western drought this winter, leaving producers with continued concerns over water supplies, pasture and forage.
Matt Makins of Makins Weather says parts of Colorado, the Rocky Mountains, Utah and the Great Basin are experiencing drought conditions that rank among the most severe in records extending back to 1895.
His analysis indicates that even if individual locations received the maximum precipitation associated with past El Niño events, much of the West would still remain in drought after the winter.
Makins says the added moisture could still produce meaningful improvement in reservoirs, soil moisture and forage conditions. The deeper hydrological deficit, however, is too large for one wet season to erase across many western areas.
The outlook is more favorable farther east across the central and southern Plains, but western producers may need multiple wet seasons before water supplies and long-term drought measures return to normal.
Farm-Level Takeaway: El Niño could improve western moisture conditions, but producers should not expect one wet season to eliminate the deeper drought.