LUBBOCK, TX – Trade-policy uncertainty can create costs across agriculture before a tariff is ever collected. Robert Antoshak, managing partner at Gherzi Americas, says businesses can plan around a known tariff, but constantly changing rules make investment, sourcing and purchasing decisions harder to price.
For agriculture, that uncertainty can affect fertilizer sourcing, machinery purchases, commodity exports and processing investment. Cotton is especially exposed because demand depends heavily on global textile and apparel supply chains that make purchasing commitments months before products reach consumers.
Antoshak says uncertainty encourages smaller orders, shorter planning horizons, additional inventory and more spending on legal, customs and compliance work. It can also delay machinery purchases and new plant investment.
Financing becomes another concern. Long-term loans for mills, factories and processing facilities depend on predictable margins, while rapidly changing trade rules can make lenders more cautious.
The result is a hidden cost that may never appear on a tariff schedule but can still slow investment and agricultural supply-chain adjustments.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Predictable trade rules can matter as much as tariff levels when producers and agribusinesses make long-term investment decisions.