MEXICO CITY – New World screwworm restrictions are changing how Mexican cattle move through the North American market, pushing more animals into domestic feedlots and slaughter rather than across the U.S. border as lightweight feeders.
USDA’s Mexico post estimates cattle exports will fall 80% in 2026 to 45,000 head. Even with the Douglas, Arizona crossing reopened, inspection, holding and treatment requirements are expected to limit throughput and raise export costs.
That shift is boosting Mexico’s domestic beef sector. Beef production is estimated to be up 11% in 2026 as retained cattle move through local feedlots and reach slaughter at heavier weights.
Mexico is also expected to export more beef instead of live cattle. Beef exports are projected up 23% this year to 400,000 metric tons, supported partly by tight U.S. cattle supplies and strong demand for imported beef.
For U.S. producers and feedlots, the longer-term question is whether this becomes a lasting realignment in North American cattle and beef flows.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Screwworm restrictions are keeping more Mexican cattle at home, strengthening domestic feeding and beef exports while reducing feeder supplies moving north.