WASHINGTON, DC – Biofuel demand is expected to consume more than half of U.S. soybean oil use in the 2026 marketing year, strengthening the role renewable fuels play in supporting domestic soybean demand.
USDA’s Economic Research Service projects 17.8 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel use, up from 14.8 billion pounds in 2025. Biofuel would account for 53.1% of total soybean oil use, compared with 47.2% last year.
Soybean oil production is projected at 32.9 billion pounds, up about 7% from 2025. At the same time, exports are forecast to fall to 400 million pounds from 975 million, keeping more oil in the domestic market.
The shift supports the expansion of U.S. soybean crushing capacity by increasing demand for one of the industry’s two major products. More crushing also produces additional soybean meal for livestock feed and export markets.
USDA expects total soybean oil use to reach 33.5 billion pounds in 2026. The outlook depends on biofuel policy, renewable-fuel demand, crush margins and competition from other fats and oils.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Biofuel demand is becoming the dominant outlet for U.S. soybean oil and could continue supporting domestic crush demand.