LUBBOCK, TX – China’s new beef safeguard duties may do less to curb imports than officials intended, according to retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale. He says imported beef, especially from Brazil, may still remain competitive in China even if the extra duties are triggered later this year.
China imported about 870,000 metric tons of beef during the first quarter of 2026, up 27.5 percent from the same period a year earlier. Gale said imports accounted for nearly one-third of China’s beef supply in the quarter, up from about one-fourth last year.
The safeguard system took effect in January and allows China to impose an extra 55 percent duty once imports from a supplying country exceed a set quota. Brazil, China’s dominant supplier, had already filled more than half of its annual quota in just the first three months of 2026, while Australia also moved past the halfway mark.
Gale said the key issue is price. During the first quarter, the landed value of imported frozen beef was about 20 renminbi per kilogram below China’s domestic beef price. That price gap may keep imports flowing even under higher duties.
He argues imported beef may still act as a ceiling on Chinese prices, limiting how far domestic values can rise and making the safeguard system less effective than advertised.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China’s safeguard duties may not sharply slow beef imports if domestic prices stay well above global market values.