WASHINGTON, DC – USDA expects a sharp rebound in agricultural exports to China during fiscal 2027, potentially helping push overall U.S. farm exports to their second-highest annual value on record. Sales to China are forecast at $21.5 billion, compared with $12 billion projected for fiscal 2026.
The increase would help lift total agricultural exports from $179.5 billion this year to $186.5 billion in 2027. USDA projects the overall agricultural trade deficit narrowing slightly to $24.5 billion.
Soybeans could benefit from stronger Chinese demand. USDA forecasts fiscal 2027 soybean export value at $21.9 billion, up from $18.4 billion projected for 2026. Soybean meal exports are also expected to increase.
China would still trail Mexico and Canada among major individual agricultural markets if current projections hold. Mexico is forecast at $32 billion in fiscal 2027, with Canada at $29 billion.
The outlook assumes that policies in place as of August 12 remain unchanged, making trade policy and purchasing patterns important variables for producers monitoring 2027 demand.
Farm-Level Takeaway: A projected rebound in Chinese buying could strengthen soybean and overall farm export demand in 2027, but policy remains a major uncertainty.