LUBBOCK, TX – Kansas feedlots posted strong early-summer returns, but projected profits turn sharply negative as feeder cattle prices and feeding costs climb. Kansas State University economist Glynn Tonsor says current projections show a rapid shift from large June gains to losses later this year.
June steer closeouts are projected at a profit of $485.52 per head, while heifers are estimated at $277.88. July steer returns fall to $24.92, and heifer returns move to a loss of $107.83 per head.
Losses deepen through fall. Steer closeouts are projected at negative $323.52 in September and negative $344.76 in October. Heifer losses reach negative $312.52 in October as weaker fed-cattle prices collide with expensive placements.
The outlook assumes cash-market sales without price-risk management. Actual results will vary with feed efficiency, purchase prices, basis, performance, and individual marketing strategies.
Feeders will compare projected breakevens with their own costs before placing cattle. Risk management, disciplined bidding, and tighter performance control may become increasingly important as margins deteriorate.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong current feedlot profits could quickly disappear as feeder cattle and gain costs remain elevated.