NASHVILLE, TN – White House efforts to reduce the national trade deficit could bring new export opportunities for farmers, but tariffs or retaliation could also raise input costs and disrupt established commodity markets.
The Council of Economic Advisers says the current account remains the most reliable measure of international imbalance, with goods trade driving most changes. The U.S. goods deficit reached about $1.2 trillion in 2025.
USDA forecasts fiscal 2026 agricultural exports at $176.5 billion and imports at $205.5 billion, leaving a $29 billion farm trade deficit. Corn exports are forecast at $18.5 billion, while soybean exports reach $18.6 billion.
Trade actions designed to narrow the broader deficit could seek larger purchases of U.S. crops, meat, dairy, ethanol, and timber. However, retaliation could reduce demand, while tariffs may increase fertilizer, machinery, chemical, and equipment costs.
Producers will watch which countries and products become trade priorities. The outcome could influence commodity prices, export access, input expenses, and rural processing investment during a period of already tight farm margins.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Trade deficit policies could expand farm exports but also expose producers to retaliation and higher input costs.